Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?

The market prices Republicans as heavy favorites at 87¢ with a tight 2¢ spread, but the extreme 1221.8% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity—the $19,870 open interest combined with zero 24-hour volume suggests minimal market depth for contrarian positions. The 7-cliff risk index and 611% risk-adjusted yield indicate meaningful tail risk, likely reflecting uncertainty around candidate quality or South Carolina's political dynamics despite the state's Republican lean. With nearly two years until resolution, the neutral regime score (0.477) suggests the market hasn't yet priced in significant new information about the race fundamentals.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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