Will the Democratic Party win the PA-10 House seat?

This PA-10 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $8,408 open interest, suggesting the 69¢ Democratic price may not reflect true consensus given the thin order book. The massive 404% implied yield on the "No" side and 1,412% realized volatility indicate wild price swings on minimal trading activity, making the current quote potentially unreliable for serious position-taking. With 201 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of only 3.5 events per hour, this market lacks the depth and activity needed for confident pricing, though the modest 3¢ spread suggests some baseline liquidity exists.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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