Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $15,175 in open interest, suggesting the 11¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and could be vulnerable to manipulation. The astronomical 1477% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic liquidity mirage—the market is pricing Democrats at only 11% to win a seat in a state that has trended heavily Republican, but the tiny position size means this yield is largely theoretical. The recent 2-cent price decline over seven days and tight 1¢ spread indicate minimal recent trading activity, making this contract unreliable for serious prediction purposes until volume materializes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

Regime

Trade