Will the Republican Party win the CA-27 House seat?

The Republican contract at 5¢ reflects an extremely bearish outlook for GOP prospects in CA-27, yet the 3,452% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion—particularly notable given zero 24-hour volume despite $9.8M open interest and a 4¢ spread. The 13x volatility ratio and 3,958% realized volatility indicate this market has experienced wild swings, likely driven by sparse information arrivals (1.7/hour), making the current price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate with 201 days to expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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