Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?

The market shows a near-even split at 51¢ for Republican victory in TX-35, but the extremely high realized volatility of 1841% and massive vol ratio of 10.96 suggest extreme price instability despite zero 24-hour volume, indicating this is a thinly-traded market with sporadic large orders driving wild swings. The 7-cent spread is substantial relative to the midpoint, and the 8-cent price jump over seven days (43¢ to 51¢) combined with a 4.7/hour information arrival rate suggests recent news or betting activity has shifted sentiment toward Republicans, though the 201-day timeline to expiration leaves considerable time for further developments. The implied yields exceeding 170% reflect the illiquidity premium and uncertainty typical of long-dated, low-volume prediction markets.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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