Will Carson Benge win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 41¢ bid-ask spread despite $1.28M open interest, suggesting the quoted 21¢ price may not reflect true market consensus. The 556% implied yield on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the wide spread rather than genuine expected returns, while the 19.65 volatility ratio and 10,835% realized volatility indicate this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded contract with minimal price discovery. With 247 days to expiration and only 1 information arrival per hour, this market appears to be a low-conviction position that would require significant new information about Benge's prospects to generate meaningful trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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