Will the Democratic Party win the MA-06 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Democratic probability (93¢) for this Massachusetts seat, which aligns with MA-06's historical lean, but the zero 24-hour volume combined with a modest $18k open interest suggests minimal liquidity and potentially stale pricing. The extreme 2425% implied yield on the "No" outcome is a red flag indicating the market may be mispriced or illiquid rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty—such asymmetric yields typically emerge when one side of a binary has negligible trading activity. With 200 days to expiration and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a low-conviction market that lacks sufficient trading interest to validate the 93% Democratic confidence.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade