Will the Republican Party win the WA-07 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with the Yes side offering a staggering 2416.7% implied yield against just 13.7% for No, reflecting the 7¢ price that prices Republicans at only 7% to win a historically Democratic seat (WA-07 is a blue district). The zero 24-hour volume combined with $36,901 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests illiquidity despite the high yield, indicating this may be a niche position held by a small number of traders rather than an actively discovered price. With 201 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, there's meaningful tail risk, though the neutral regime score suggests no immediate catalysts are driving unusual positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade