Will Milady floor price reach 4 ETH before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Will Milady floor price reach 4 ETH before 2027?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $331k open interest and a wide 33¢ spread, suggesting the 40¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $331k open interest and a wide 33¢ spread, suggesting the 40¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 240% implied yield on the Yes side appears artificially inflated by low liquidity rather than genuine conviction that Milady will 4x from current levels within 259 days, especially given the neutral market regime and 379% realized volatility indicating significant uncertainty. The 2.38 vol ratio and 1.6 info arrivals per hour suggest this market is pricing in moderate event risk, but traders should be cautious of slippage given the illiquidity.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if the Milady floor price reaches 4ETH or higher at any point between December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be NftPriceFloor, specifically the "Milady price chart" available at https://nftpricefloor.com/milady, with "1M" selected on the top bar. The price will be determined based on the value shown when hovering over the chart. Only data from NFTPriceFloor will be used to resolve this market. Prices from other data providers or NFT marketplaces will not be considered.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x1face89a859c663692c22d4ea7a50f518ce9723625849a9fd420f2d63fc844a2 yes 100