What is the current probability for "Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 17¢ (17% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 704.5% and 29.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay. This contract trades at 17¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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17¢

Bid/Ask 16/18¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $4,707.335·OI $11,591.02·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0x1fb51c9398ae0f164de29cfe3d53f291d4b953145c73a524135b35fb03fa6534

7-day price16 snapshots · 32 regime

19¢17¢ current

Apr 814¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf

Indicators

IY (Yes) 704.5%

IY (No) 29.6%

Adj IY 311%

CRI 5

LAS 0.12

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	704.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	29.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	311%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.12	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:56:53 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x1fb51c9398ae0f164de29cfe3d53f291d4b953145c73a524135b35fb03fa6534 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

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