Will the Democratic Party win the FL-21 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing at just 13¢ with an extraordinary 1,221.6% implied yield, suggesting severe undervaluation or extreme Republican confidence in this traditionally conservative Florida district. With zero 24-hour volume despite $16.1M in open interest and 200 days to expiration, the market appears illiquid and potentially stale, raising questions about whether the 13¢ price reflects genuine consensus or simply the last executed trade. The neutral regime score and modest 1¢ spread indicate stable conditions, but the massive yield asymmetry (611% risk-adjusted) warrants caution—this could represent either a genuine arbitrage opportunity or a liquidity trap in a low-volume market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade