Will the Republican Party win the CA-36 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely bearish view on Republican prospects in CA-36, pricing them at just 6¢ with a massive 2859.6% implied yield on the Yes side, though the asymmetric payoff is tempered by minimal 24-hour volume of $31.7 against $20.5k open interest. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action suggest the market has settled on this low probability, but the 16 Cliff Risk Index and 200-day timeframe to the November 2026 election leave substantial room for political shifts that could dramatically reprrice this heavily Democratic-favored seat.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade