Will the Democratic Party win the TN-07 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in an 11% win probability for TN-07, an extremely safe Republican seat, yet displays an extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,472% on the Yes side—a red flag suggesting illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine market conviction. With zero 24-hour volume despite $21.8k open interest and 201 days to expiration, this appears to be a stale or abandoned position where the tight 1¢ spread masks the underlying illiquidity. The 8/10 cliff risk index and massive yield asymmetry (1,472% vs. 22.5%) indicate this contract should be approached cautiously, as any significant capital deployment could move prices dramatically or face execution challenges.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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