Will the Democratic Party win the OH-06 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 9¢ implies an extremely long-shot probability in Ohio's 6th district, with an astronomical 1,839% annualized yield for Yes positions—though this figure is inflated by the deep out-of-the-money pricing and should be treated cautiously given the 10/10 cliff risk index. The market shows minimal liquidity ($0 24h volume) and a notable 2¢ spread despite $35.8M open interest, suggesting the contract may be mispriced or illiquid relative to fundamentals; the recent 1¢ price decline over seven days could indicate shifting sentiment toward Republican dominance in this district. With over 200 days to expiry, there's substantial time for material repricing if political conditions shift, though the neutral regime score suggests current pricing reflects relatively stable expectations.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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