Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Polymarket, closing August 6, 2026. The market is pricing Jerri Green as a heavily favored frontrunner at 87¢, but the extreme asymmetry in implied yields—49.1% for Yes versus 2201% for No—signals that traders are pricing in substantial tail risk of a primary upset, despite the tight 1¢ spread suggesting confidence in current pricing.
Analysis
The market is pricing Jerri Green as a heavily favored frontrunner at 87¢, but the extreme asymmetry in implied yields—49.1% for Yes versus 2201% for No—signals that traders are pricing in substantial tail risk of a primary upset, despite the tight 1¢ spread suggesting confidence in current pricing. With only $14,167 in open interest and $1,333 in 24-hour volume, liquidity is notably thin for a political primary market, and the 93% realized volatility combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicates this contract could experience sharp repricing as new information emerges over the next 111 days.
Also on kalshi at 81¢(Δ +5¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Tennessee, scheduled to take place on August 6, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Tennessee Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Tennessee Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x22776ecdacca07302e6cc578cdcf26df93b4233d5a8166cbf131cb32fec425b9 yes 100