Will the Democratic Party win the IL-13 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume despite $18.5K open interest and a suspiciously tight 1¢ spread at 93¢. The No side's implied yield of 2,425% is a red flag indicating minimal backing for the Democratic loss scenario—likely just a few contracts at unfavorable odds—making the 93% probability unreliable for serious analysis. With 200 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, this market lacks sufficient liquidity to serve as a credible price discovery mechanism for IL-13's 2026 outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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