Will the Republican Party win the NY-20 House seat?

The Republican probability in NY-20 has collapsed from 7¢ to 4¢ over seven days, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment toward Democratic dominance in this traditionally blue district. The 4365.8% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and suggests severe illiquidity—with zero 24-hour volume and only $18,432 in open interest, this price may not reflect genuine conviction but rather a thin market with minimal trading activity. The 201-day timeframe to the 2026 midterms provides ample time for repricing, and the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 24 indicates potential for sharp moves as the election approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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