Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Polymarket, closing October 1, 2026. The 18¢ price implies only an 18% probability of a Consensys IPO within 16 months, yet the Yes side offers an extreme 996% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to tail risk or speculative demand.
Analysis
The 18¢ price implies only an 18% probability of a Consensys IPO within 16 months, yet the Yes side offers an extreme 996% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to tail risk or speculative demand. With just $10.97 in 24-hour volume against $542.762 open interest and a perfect 18¢ bid-ask spread, liquidity is critically thin—any meaningful position could move the price substantially. The 1545% realized volatility and 4.97 vol ratio indicate this market experiences extreme swings despite the stagnant 7-day price action, pointing to episodic news-driven moves rather than steady repricing.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ConsenSys (the parent company of MetaMask) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If ConsenSys is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
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Trade
sf trade 0x239b9eb8c8a176360c0e732e359c0086e4f7c321c53df88eba6bf9c67f41b637 yes 100