Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at <$23,500 in December?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 76¢ spread despite 258 days to expiration, suggesting minimal trader interest in a binary bet on NDX staying below $23,500 by end-2026. The 52¢ price implies roughly even odds, but the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 1,177% and vol ratio of 10.66 indicate significant pricing uncertainty or potential data anomalies. With $140.5k open interest but no recent price movement (flat at 53¢ over 7 days) and an information arrival rate of 8.5/hour, this appears to be a stale or abandoned position that may not reflect current market consensus on NDX's trajectory.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."

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