Will the Democratic Party win the IA-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $19k open interest, suggesting the 10¢ price may not reflect true consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp repricing. The 1,642.7% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high—typical of deeply underpriced long-shot bets—while the 9/10 Cliff Risk Index flags significant tail risk, indicating the market structure itself may be unstable. With 200 days to expiration and Iowa's 4th district being a traditionally Republican seat, the Democratic probability appears reasonable fundamentally, but the complete absence of recent trading activity raises questions about whether this price reflects genuine market sentiment or simply stale positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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