Will the Republican Party win the IL-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $18k open interest, suggesting the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The astronomical 4379.7% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing—such yields are typically only sustainable in highly uncertain or manipulated markets, and the neutral regime score contradicts the extreme probability skew. The recent price decline from 5¢ to 4¢ combined with 200 days to expiration and a concerning 24 Cliff Risk Index suggests this contract may suffer from low-liquidity distortions rather than reflecting IL-03's actual Republican win probability, which historical data would suggest is substantially higher than 4%.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade