Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?

The 8¢ price reflects extreme skepticism about Flávio Bolsonaro's chances, with the Yes side offering a staggering 2,459% implied yield against a modest 18.6% for No—a massive asymmetry suggesting the market views this outcome as highly unlikely. The 7¢ spread and relatively thin $150K daily volume indicate low liquidity for such a high-stakes political outcome, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. Notable volatility (1,585% realized, 3.46 vol ratio) and a recent 33% price jump from 6¢ to 8¢ over seven days suggest recent information arrival or sentiment shifts, though with 171 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market may still be pricing in considerable uncertainty around Brazil's political landscape.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade