Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 12¢ reflects a heavily Republican-favored district, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 1333.9% implied yield against minimal 24h volume of $0, suggesting illiquidity and potentially stale pricing. The 2¢ spread is relatively tight despite the zero volume, and the Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicates moderate event concentration risk as we approach the November 2026 election 201 days out. The sharp asymmetry between Yes and No yields (1333.9% vs 24.8%) combined with $26.4M open interest suggests this market may be mispriced or suffering from low liquidity that's preventing efficient price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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