Will Curtis Blaydes be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Curtis Blaydes be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. Curtis Blaydes' championship odds have collapsed from 14¢ to 3¢ over seven days, reflecting a dramatic reassessment of his title prospects despite 258 days remaining until resolution.

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14¢
Bid/Ask 0/27¢·Spread 27¢·Vol $0·OI $628.618·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining
0x28b21f91dd8f2911483a2fed02417fc274d8339e02fd39873f42d4582f39b6c3
7-day price1193 snapshots · 2 regime
15¢14¢ current
Apr 80¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

Curtis Blaydes' championship odds have collapsed from 14¢ to 3¢ over seven days, reflecting a dramatic reassessment of his title prospects despite 258 days remaining until resolution. The extreme 4575% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 5¢ spread suggests this is an illiquid, stale market where the price may not reflect current betting sentiment. The 7251% realized volatility and 32 Cliff Risk Index indicate significant uncertainty and potential for sharp repricing, particularly as major UFC heavyweight developments unfold over the next eight months.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at ¢

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94Close-time delta 17h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 885.7%
IY (No) 23.5%
Adj IY 443%
CRI 6
Overround 1.4%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)885.7%
IY (No)23.5%
Adj IY443%
CRI6
Overround1.4%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
27¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:26:58 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x28b21f91dd8f2911483a2fed02417fc274d8339e02fd39873f42d4582f39b6c3 yes 100

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