Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing February 28, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $4.4M open interest and a wide 7¢ spread, suggesting the 13¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $4.4M open interest and a wide 7¢ spread, suggesting the 13¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 770% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the low price floor rather than genuine opportunity, given Venezuela's production has collapsed from 3M bpd in 2012 to under 800k bpd recently, making a 1.7M target in 2026 highly ambitious. The 62% price increase over seven days combined with extreme realized volatility (1099%) and a 7/10 cliff risk index indicate this is a speculative position with minimal trading depth rather than an efficiently priced market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x28f262f83978e0a29a25a36ac81a99990abcc8246f6fd349736d01eaa48fd20a yes 100