Will Josh Elliott win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Josh Elliott win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing August 11, 2026. Josh Elliott is priced at a 9% probability with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 3,181% for YES positions, suggesting severe illiquidity and minimal market confidence in his candidacy.
Analysis
Josh Elliott is priced at a 9% probability with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 3,181% for YES positions, suggesting severe illiquidity and minimal market confidence in his candidacy. The market has declined from 11¢ to 9¢ over seven days with only $1.53 in 24-hour volume against $13,204 open interest, indicating trapped liquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions at posted prices. With 116 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 10, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where the extreme yield reflects the difficulty of finding counterparties rather than genuine probability assessment.
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x29271437572fd58353539701b2f2d7717cb27098be8f2d61ac68097ee1a904e2 yes 100