Will the Democratic Party win the MT-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2,425% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 7¢ price significantly undervalues Democratic chances in Montana's 2nd district—a historically competitive seat. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $18.4M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates illiquidity despite substantial capital at risk, creating potential execution challenges for traders attempting to arbitrage this apparent mismatch. With 200 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 13, the market has time for price discovery, but the extreme yield differential warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine market inefficiency or embedded information about Democratic viability in this Republican-leaning district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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