Will Bryce Eldridge win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Bryce Eldridge win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $3.1M open interest, suggesting the positions are largely static and potentially trapped.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $3.1M open interest, suggesting the positions are largely static and potentially trapped. The price has collapsed 57% over seven days from 14¢ to 6¢, indicating either deteriorating odds for Eldridge or a forced liquidation, while the astronomical 2317% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe mispricing created by the illiquid market structure. The 10¢ spread and 56.57 volatility ratio are dangerously wide, making this contract difficult to exit at fair value with over 8 months until resolution.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x2d09f4a36f91aee3561c9af8fcbce20a70e413522fafb17f4da78292574ed381 yes 100