Will the Democratic Party win the KS-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13.7M open interest, suggesting the position is largely locked in rather than actively traded. The 87¢ price implies Democrats are heavy favorites in this traditionally Republican Kansas district, but the asymmetric implied yields (27.4% for Yes vs. 1227.5% for No) and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicate significant uncertainty about whether the current pricing reflects genuine fundamentals or illiquidity-driven mispricing. With nearly 200 days to expiration and a tight 2¢ spread, this market warrants monitoring for any meaningful volume that could reveal whether the Democratic lean is justified or represents a liquidity trap.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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