Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 45% probability that Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 45¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. Tom Aspinall's championship odds show a stark 33-cent divergence between Polymarket (62¢) and Kalshi (29¢), suggesting significant disagreement on his title retention prospects over the next 256 days.
Analysis
Tom Aspinall's championship odds show a stark 33-cent divergence between Polymarket (62¢) and Kalshi (29¢), suggesting significant disagreement on his title retention prospects over the next 256 days. The 339% realized volatility and extreme yield asymmetry (232% on "No" versus 87% on "Yes") indicate substantial uncertainty, though the recent 26% price surge from 49¢ to 62¢ may reflect recent UFC developments favoring Aspinall. With only $12.81 in 24-hour volume against $150.1 open interest, liquidity is thin relative to positions held, creating potential slippage risk for larger trades.
Also on kalshi at 51¢(Δ -6¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
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Trade
sf trade 0x2e31f2d8aeda547ffc9c7dbf3559e2ad1400c3812b1a84bdc4422bba5ef328b6 yes 100