Who will be the Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Who will be the Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme realized volatility of 9,525% with a vol ratio of 37.10, indicating massive price swings relative to typical prediction markets—the contract jumped 31 cents over seven days (from 30¢ to 61¢), suggesting significant new information or uncertainty about Tom Aspinall's title status.
Analysis
This market shows extreme realized volatility of 9,525% with a vol ratio of 37.10, indicating massive price swings relative to typical prediction markets—the contract jumped 31 cents over seven days (from 30¢ to 61¢), suggesting significant new information or uncertainty about Tom Aspinall's title status. The 62¢ price implies a 62% probability but carries a notably asymmetric risk profile, with the "No" side offering 221.5% annualized yield versus just 90.5% for "Yes," reflecting market skepticism about Aspinall retaining the belt over the next 258 days. Liquidity is thin at $4,945.56 open interest with only $44.56 in 24-hour volume, and while the 1¢ spread is tight and cross-venue pricing is aligned (61¢ on Polymarket), the elevated info arrival rate of 2.2 events per hour suggests active UFC-related news flow could continue driving volatility.
Also on polymarket at 43¢(Δ +8¢)
Resolution rules
If Tom Aspinall is the UFC Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-26-TASP yes 100