Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. The 6¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in Taylor-Johnson's candidacy, with the Yes side offering an astronomical 7,736% implied yield versus just 31.5% for No—a massive asymmetry suggesting the market views this as a long-shot bet.
Analysis
The 6¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in Taylor-Johnson's candidacy, with the Yes side offering an astronomical 7,736% implied yield versus just 31.5% for No—a massive asymmetry suggesting the market views this as a long-shot bet. Volume is thin at $220.56 over 24 hours against $5.8M open interest, and the 4¢ spread indicates illiquidity, though the 200% price surge over seven days (2¢ to 6¢) hints at recent news or speculation that hasn't yet materialized into mainstream odds. With 74 days to resolution and a realized volatility of 4,489%, this remains a highly speculative position vulnerable to sudden information arrival (0.9 events per hour) or cliff risk, making it suitable only for contrarian bettors comfortable with extreme tail outcomes.
Also on kalshi at 16¢(Δ -13¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x31eaf3b4bfb0c7107250f8aae9dfaf18a821a6c58fe1b5254a1b77542a4c836c yes 100