Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $12.7M open interest, suggesting the position is largely trapped. The 4¢ price implies only a 4% probability that Massa finishes third, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 5132% implied yield—a massive asymmetry that reflects either deep mispricing or severe liquidity constraints preventing arbitrage. With 171 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in either Massa's strong polling position or low perceived volatility in Brazilian electoral outcomes, but the extreme yield differential and zero trading activity warrant caution about the true market consensus.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Regime

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