Will the Democratic Party win the FL-11 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1221.8% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 27.3% on the "No" side, suggesting the 13¢ price significantly undervalues Democratic chances in FL-11 relative to Republican odds. The $0 24-hour volume and $16.8k open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation, while the 2¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 7 further signal thin market conditions. With 200 days to expiry and no recent price movement, this appears to be a stale, inefficiently-priced market where the extreme yield differential warrants caution about taking the quoted probabilities at face value.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade