Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

This eschatological arbitrage market shows near-perfect 50-50 pricing at 49¢, reflecting genuine uncertainty about two unpredictable events with a 105-day window. The 362% implied yield on the "Yes" side and $843K open interest suggest meaningful speculative positioning, though the $15.3K daily volume indicates relatively thin liquidity for the bet's size. The tight 1¢ spread and low cliff risk (1.0) suggest the market is efficiently pricing the absurdist nature of the resolution criteria, with the 50-50 tiebreaker on July 31, 2026 creating an unusual terminal condition that may be driving late-stage positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.

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