Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election?

The Noel Thomas market shows a significant asymmetry in risk-adjusted yields, with the "No" side offering 139% compared to just 79% for "Yes," suggesting the market may be underpricing downside risk or overweighting the 57¢ price. With zero 24-hour volume despite $14.9M open interest and a wide 8¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for actual execution. The 7-day price movement from 50¢ to 57¢ represents a 14% rally, but the elevated realized volatility (128%) and low information arrival rate (0.6/h) indicate this is a thinly-traded, speculative position with substantial uncertainty ahead of the 349-day expiry.

Resolution rules

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Regime

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