Will the Democratic Party win the NY-12 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (94%) for Democratic victory in NY-12, though the $0 in 24-hour volume and modest $28,922 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could make execution difficult at quoted prices. The asymmetric implied yields—11.6% for Yes versus 2,849.9% for No—reveal severe mispricing on the No side, likely reflecting minimal trading activity rather than genuine market conviction, with a Cliff Risk Index of 16 indicating moderate tail risk as we approach the November 2026 election. With over 200 days to expiration and no price movement in the past week, this market appears to be a "set and forget" position lacking active price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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