Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

The Orioles' 7¢ price implies a 7% probability of winning the 2026 ALCS, but the extreme 2440.7% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing relative to the No side's 13.8% yield, suggesting the market is dramatically undervaluing their chances. With $17,797 in open interest but zero 24-hour volume and 199 days to expiration, this appears to be a stale, illiquid market where the low price may reflect lack of recent trading rather than fundamental conviction. The 1¢ spread and Cliff Risk Index of 13 indicate potential volatility around resolution, making this a high-risk contrarian opportunity if the Orioles are considered legitimate contenders heading into 2026.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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