Will Jesus Luzardo win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility with only $5.96 in 24-hour volume against $1.2M open interest, creating a dangerously wide 74¢ spread and an implausible 742% implied yield on the yes side that likely reflects thin order books rather than genuine pricing. Luzardo's probability has surged from 7¢ to 19¢ over seven days with realized volatility exceeding 14,900%, suggesting either significant new information about his injury recovery or speculative positioning rather than fundamental reassessment. With 210 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this contract carries substantial execution risk, and traders should be cautious of the massive yes-side yield—it primarily reflects the difficulty of actually buying at 37¢ rather than expected returns.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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