Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?

This market reflects extremely high confidence in Republican retention of Tennessee's 4th congressional district, with the Yes position priced at 92¢ implying a 92% win probability, though the stark asymmetry in implied yields (15.8% for Yes versus 2091.8% for No) signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the No side. With zero 24-hour volume despite $20.6 million in open interest and a modest 1¢ spread, the market appears frozen with few active traders willing to test these extreme prices. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides ample opportunity for market repricing if political conditions shift, though the neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk index (12) suggest the current pricing reflects relatively stable fundamentals rather than imminent catalysts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade