Will the Republican Party win the WA-01 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with Republicans priced at just 8¢ despite WA-01 being a competitive district that has flipped between parties, suggesting the 2091.8% implied yield on the Yes side reflects severe undervaluation rather than genuine probability. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $32,416 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates illiquid pricing that may not reflect true market consensus, with the high cliff risk index (12) suggesting potential sharp repricing as we approach the November 2026 election. With 201 days to expiry, this appears to be a stale market where the price has remained flat at 8¢ for at least a week, creating an arbitrage opportunity if Republicans' actual chances are materially higher than 8%.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade