Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?

The market is pricing an 8% probability of an Iranian strike on Leviathan Field by end-April 2026, but the extreme 30,540% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction—only $79,655 in 24-hour volume against $11.6M open interest suggests thin order books. With 14 days to expiry, the 1,950% realized volatility and 12 Cliff Risk Index indicate this is a highly unstable binary event market where small information arrivals (2.7/hour) could trigger sharp repricing, making the current 8¢ price potentially unreliable for serious position-taking.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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