Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 53% probability that Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?. This contract trades at 53¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

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53¢
Bid/Ask 45/61¢·Spread 16¢·Vol $135.74·OI $3,864.826·Closes Jun 30, 2026·69d remaining
0x3ce540874f47c3fe82dcf9359276b57a5ce8def9083fff1c4f501af4817b68a6
7-day price836 snapshots · 1 regime
65¢55¢ current
Apr 847¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 449.6%
IY (No) 619.6%
Adj IY 310%
CRI 1
Overround 1.9%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)449.6%
IY (No)619.6%
Adj IY310%
CRI1
Overround1.9%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
16¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:27:25 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x3ce540874f47c3fe82dcf9359276b57a5ce8def9083fff1c4f501af4817b68a6 yes 100

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