Will the Democratic Party win the NY-06 House seat?

The market is pricing Democrats as overwhelming favorites at 92¢ with minimal recent trading ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting the consensus around NY-06 is firmly settled despite 201 days until resolution. The extreme implied yield asymmetry—15.8% for Yes versus 2092% for No—reflects the massive odds imbalance, with the No side offering outsized returns that come with correspondingly severe cliff risk (index of 12), indicating this contract could face binary resolution pressure. With $26.4M open interest but a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a high-conviction market where liquidity concentrates around the consensus view rather than genuine uncertainty.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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