Will the Republican Party win the TX-33 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with Republicans priced at just 8¢ despite TX-33 being a historically competitive district that Democrats currently hold by narrow margins, suggesting the 2091.8% implied yield on the Yes side reflects severe illiquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $33.5M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates this is a stale, illiquid position where the price may not reflect current political fundamentals heading into the 2026 cycle. With 201 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 12, there's meaningful time for repricing, though the neutral regime score suggests no immediate catalysts are driving market movement.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade