Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close over $33,000 on the final trading day of December 2026?

This market is pricing in an extremely bearish outlook for the Nasdaq 100, with a 5% implied probability that NDX will exceed $33,000 by end-2026—requiring roughly 25% upside from current levels. The astronomical 2687.8% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe mispricing typical of low-liquidity markets, evidenced by zero 24-hour volume despite $1.015M open interest and a wide 7¢ spread. The recent price decline from 6¢ to 5¢ combined with the neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk (19) suggest this contract may be undervalued given the long 258-day timeframe and historical tech sector resilience, though the illiquidity makes any position risky.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."

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