Will Mark Gordon win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $4.5M open interest, suggesting the position is largely illiquid and potentially trapped. The 2,725% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe mispricing typical of thin markets, while the 10.97 volatility ratio and 9/10 cliff risk index indicate this contract could experience sharp repricing on minimal news flow. With 121 days to expiration and only 1.7 information arrivals per hour, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal real-world trading activity rather than an efficient price discovery mechanism.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wyoming, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wyoming Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wyoming Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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