Will Azerbaijan come in last place at Eurovision 2026?

This market displays extreme mispricing with Azerbaijan's last-place probability at just 4¢ despite the contract showing a staggering 29,482% implied yield on "Yes" positions, suggesting severe undervaluation relative to historical Eurovision outcomes. The 6¢ spread and minimal $29.3 daily volume indicate dangerously low liquidity, making the 4% price potentially unreliable; the realized volatility of 5,321% and cliff risk index of 24 signal high execution risk near the May 16 expiration. The 7-day price decline from 6¢ to 4¢ combined with a 2.98 volatility ratio suggests recent bearish sentiment, though with only 30 days to resolution and an information arrival rate of 2.8 events per hour, late-breaking Eurovision developments could rapidly reprrice this thin market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Indicators

Regime

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