Will the Democratic Party win the ND-AL House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2416.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 13.7% on the No side, reflecting the 7¢ price that prices Democrats at only 7% to win North Dakota's at-large House seat—a heavily Republican district. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $41,335 in open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests illiquidity despite the high theoretical returns, indicating this may be a niche position held by a small number of traders rather than an actively discovered price. With 201 days until the November 2026 election and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, the market has moderate tail risk exposure, though the neutral regime score suggests current conditions aren't unusually volatile.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade