Will the Republican Party win the PA-05 House seat?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 7¢ price implying only a 7% Republican win probability in PA-05, yet the implied yield on a "Yes" position reaches an extraordinary 2416.7%, suggesting severe undervaluation of Republican chances. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $31,559 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates illiquidity despite the high yield opportunity, creating potential slippage concerns for meaningful position entry. With 201 days to expiration and a cliff risk index of 13, the market appears to be pricing in an extremely confident Democratic lean for this seat, warranting scrutiny of whether this reflects genuine fundamentals or represents a liquidity-driven mispricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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